PORTFOLIO COMPARISON / ONE VARIABLE

60/40 vs 40/60 Portfolio Backtest

Compare Vanguard’s familiar moderate and conservative stock–bond allocations using VTI and BND over the committed free-plan snapshot.

THE QUESTION

How much historical growth was exchanged for a smaller drawdown when stocks fell from 60% to 40%?

BASE PORTFOLIO60% US equities / 40% US bonds
CONTROLLED CHANGE40% US equities / 60% US bonds
ONLY CHANGED VARIABLEStock allocation, reduced from 60% to 40%

The base rules, data treatment, and calculation assumptions remain visible throughout the comparison. Review the portfolio backtest methodology used to interpret this result.

WHAT TO COMPARE

Read the trade-off as a system.

  1. 01Ending value
  2. 02Annualized return
  3. 03Maximum drawdown
  4. 04Growth sacrificed

WHEN TO LOOK

Locate where the difference appeared.

2020-06-02–2026-07-31Committed free-plan snapshotAnnual rebalance

A useful comparison shows whether an advantage was broad or created by one unusually favorable period. For a direct test of this risk, compare the same rules across multiple portfolio start dates.

OBSERVED RESULT / REAL MARKET DATA

What the comparison actually produced.

The 40/60 portfolio finished at $12,966 versus $15,978 for 60/40 over the same snapshot window.

WINDOW2020-06-02 → 2026-07-31
CAPITAL$10,000 initial investment
CALCULATIONVTI and BND adjusted closes from the committed Marketstack snapshot; target weights restored annually; nominal USD before fees and taxes.
PortfolioEnding valueDetail
60% VTI / 40% BND$15,9787.9% annualized · -22.8% max DD
40% VTI / 60% BND$12,9664.3% annualized · -21.2% max DD

TEST ANOTHER ALLOCATION OR RULE

Change one variable in AI Backtest.

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