PORTFOLIO COMPARISON / ONE VARIABLE

VTI Backtest: Gold and Bond Allocation Changes

Invest $10,000 once and test two controlled changes: replace 10% of VTI with GLD, or replace 30% of VTI with BND.

THE QUESTION

Does reallocating part of a 100% VTI portfolio improve the return–drawdown trade-off?

BASE PORTFOLIO100% VTI · $10,000 initial
CONTROLLED CHANGE90% VTI / 10% GLD, or 70% VTI / 30% BND
ONLY CHANGED VARIABLEDestination of equity weight moved into GLD or BND

The base rules, data treatment, and calculation assumptions remain visible throughout the comparison. Review the portfolio backtest methodology used to interpret this result.

WHAT TO COMPARE

Read the trade-off as a system.

  1. 01Ending value
  2. 02Annualized return
  3. 03Maximum drawdown
  4. 04Path dependence

WHEN TO LOOK

Locate where the difference appeared.

2020-06-02–2026-07-31Committed free-plan snapshotAnnual rebalance

A useful comparison shows whether an advantage was broad or created by one unusually favorable period. For a direct test of this risk, compare the same rules across multiple portfolio start dates.

OBSERVED RESULT / REAL MARKET DATA

What the comparison actually produced.

Moving 10% from VTI to GLD changed ending value by $276 and maximum drawdown by +1.7 pts versus 100% VTI.

WINDOW2020-06-02 → 2026-07-31
CAPITAL$10,000 invested once at the first common observation
CALCULATIONMarketstack adjusted closes for VTI, BND, and GLD; annual rebalancing; nominal USD before fees and taxes. No live provider request during the page render.
PortfolioEnding valueAnnualized returnMaximum drawdown
100% VTI$23,61515.0%-26.2%
90% VTI / 10% GLD$23,89115.2%-24.6%
70% VTI / 30% BND$17,6759.7%-23.6%

TEST ANOTHER ALLOCATION OR RULE

Change one variable in AI Backtest.

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