EXPLORE / CONSISTENCY & ASSUMPTIONS

Portfolio consistency and assumption comparisons

Test whether a conclusion survives different start dates, inflation treatment, and historical environments.

COMPARISONS IN THIS TOPIC

Start with the decision you want to test.

Each example keeps the portfolio rules visible so the measured difference remains interpretable.

01ONE VARIABLE

Portfolio Start-Date Risk

BASEOne fixed portfolio and one selected start year

CHANGEThe same rules across rolling start years

Would the same portfolio decision look convincing if the investor had started in a different year?

OBSERVED RESULT

Five-year annualized returns ranged from 5.28% to 12.89% even though the portfolio rules never changed. A single ten-year result therefore conceals a 7.61-point start-date range.

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02ONE VARIABLE

Inflation-Adjusted Returns

BASENominal portfolio returns

CHANGEInflation-adjusted portfolio returns

Does a portfolio conclusion survive when results are measured in purchasing-power terms?

OBSERVED RESULT

The account grew to $23,231 nominally, but only $17,266 in Aug 2016 purchasing power. Inflation reduced the annualized growth rate from 9.37% to 5.97%.

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